| Real GDP growth, y-o-y % | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), baseline as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), downside as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| WB GEP (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| WB MPO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||
| EC Economic Forecast (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| EBRD REP (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| NBU Inflation Report (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| KSE Macro Handbook (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||
| ICU Macro Insight (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), ceasefire as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), war as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Concorde Capital, CES survey (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Population, mln | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — |
| Unemployment rate, % | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), baseline as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), downside as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| EC Economic Forecast (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| NBU Inflation Report (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| KSE Macro Handbook (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||
| ICU Macro Insight (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“Real GDP growth is projected at 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, down from 2.3% and 4.1% in the previous forecast due to the revised assumption of the full-scale war's end in the second half of 2027 and worse-than- expected current economic dynamics; it is then expected to accelerate to 4.5% in 2028 and 5.6% in 2029, with the economy closing the negative gap only in the end of 2029 (see Figure 1).”
KSE Institute (Kyiv School of Economics) — Ukraine Macroeconomic Handbook, p.8 · vintage 2026-08 · UA-Q-0034✓ substring-verified
“In 2027-2028, economic growth will accelerate to around 3%, driven by increased investment in expanding production capacity, particularly in the defense industrial base, the gradual stabilization of the energy sector, and further increases in harvests and the preservation of robust consumer demand.”
National Bank of Ukraine — Inflation Report, p.4 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0033✓ substring-verified
“In Q2, economic growth resumed due to improvements in the energy system and higher government spending amid reduced uncertainty regarding external assistance. According to current assessments of the SSSU, real GDP grew by 0.6% yoy in Q2. More significant economic growth is being hindered by the consequences of russia's ramped up attacks on logistics infrastructure (including the blockade of ports), the energy sector, and business facilities. At the same time, a more accommodative fiscal policy, tremendous economic momentum generated by the channeling of part of external financing toward the localization of weapons production, and a larger harvest than last year will contribute to a revival in economic activity during H2. As a result, the NBU has revised upward its forecast for real GDP growth in 2026, to 1.8%.”
National Bank of Ukraine — Inflation Report, p.4 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0052✓ substring-verified
“Relative to program approval, the outlook for 2026 has been downgraded due to the weak first quarter, stronger-than-expected impacts of Russia's ongoing war, and spillovers from the war in the Middle East. Projected GDP growth has been lowered to 1-1.6 percent (y/y) and will continue to be driven by private consumption growth from still-high wage inflation (and to some extent the effects of a looser fiscal stance; see below).”
International Monetary Fund — Ukraine: Country Report (EFF programme reviews), p.19 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0053✓ substring-verified
“Immediate recovery (2027-30): Growth would be driven by investment for reconstruction, export recovery, returning refugees, and a normalization of labor markets.”
International Monetary Fund — Ukraine: Country Report (EFF programme reviews), p.19 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0054✓ substring-verified
“As we argued in previous reports, a sluggishness of economic growth is going to be a new normal for the coming years as long as the war persists with the current intensity.”
ICU (Investment Capital Ukraine) — Macro Insight (quarterly macro review), p.2 · vintage 2026-06 · UA-Q-0231✓ substring-verified
“Growth is projected at 2.2 per cent in 2026, rising to 4.0 per cent in 2027 if the war can be brought to a halt and if post-war reconstruction begins.”
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development — Regional Economic Prospects, p.44 · vintage 2026-06 · UA-Q-0050✓ substring-verified
“Provided that conditions for a comprehensive reconstruction are in place from the start of 2027, growth is projected to pick up significantly, to 4%. Reconstruction investment, easing labour shortages, and fewer export bottlenecks are expected to outweigh the dampening effect of a gradual decline in defence-related spending.”
European Commission — European Economic Forecast, p.182 · vintage 2026-05 · UA-Q-0051✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMFbest · Adj. MAE | 25 | +2.06 | 4.55 | 4.04 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| NBU | 24 | +4.37 | 5.53 | 4.92 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| EBRD | 18 | +4.63 | 6.02 | 5.09 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| EC | 11 | +0.44 | 1.57 | 5.53 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| ICU | 15 | +4.32 | 5.90 | 5.78 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| WB | 19 | +4.14 | 7.36 | 6.32 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| KSE | 4 | +0.91 | 0.91 | 6.48 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICUbest · Adj. MAE | 15 | -0.69 | 3.92 | 3.59 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| IMF | 21 | -3.40 | 4.16 | 3.86 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| NBU | 24 | -2.26 | 4.91 | 3.94 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| EC | 9 | +1.80 | 2.08 | 4.25 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| KSE | 4 | +0.42 | 0.94 | 4.71 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).