Expectations about the Russia's war on Ukraine
“+” indicates that the war is expected to continue in that year, while “−” indicates that the war is expected to end.
| Expected war duration | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), baseline as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), downside as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||
| EBRD REP (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| KSE Macro Handbook (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), ceasefire as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), war as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| Concorde Capital, CES survey (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“The war remains intense, with rising damages that impact Ukraine's economic capacit . The humanitarian situation remains severe, with millions of refugees and internally displaced people unable to return home. Despite a three-day ceasefire in May, peace talks have made little progress and international efforts to bring about a peace agreement appear to have slowed down amidst other global crises.”
International Monetary Fund — Ukraine: Country Report (EFF programme reviews), p.48 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0030✓ substring-verified
“The downside scenario continues to be based on a security situation that gradually transitions to a frozen conflict by end-2028 (Annex V).”
International Monetary Fund — Ukraine: Country Report (EFF programme reviews), p.22 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0023✓ substring-verified
“Externally, peace efforts are slow-going and the war in the Middle East has constrained the availability of critical equipment and other resources needed to protect Ukraine's infrastructure. While frontline positions have remained broadly unchanged, sustained air attacks have caused significant damage, adding pressure on the energy sector and eroding fiscal buffers. Attacks on critical infrastructure over the winter have also taken a heavy social toll.”
International Monetary Fund — Ukraine: Country Report (EFF programme reviews), p.12 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0031✓ substring-verified
“With the baseline continuing to assume that the war ends this year, revisions to the outlook for subsequent years are limited.”
International Monetary Fund — Ukraine: Country Report (EFF programme reviews), p.19 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0022✓ substring-verified
“The course of the full-scale war remains the key risk to inflation trends and economic development; however, further developments in the Middle East could also have a significant impact The war is continuing.”
National Bank of Ukraine — Inflation Report, p.5 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0024✓ substring-verified
“We have revised our assumption for the end of the full-scale war from late 2026 to the second half of 2027. Although the path to a ceasefire and lasting peace remains highly uncertain and could accelerate under favorable military, economic, or diplomatic developments, we consider a longer conflict the more likely outcome. Russia appears prepared to sustain the war despite mounting economic and military pressures, and even if its position continues to deteriorate, negotiations toward a durable peace agreement are likely to take considerable time. Updating this assumption is not intended to signal inevitability, but to provide partners with a realistic basis for assessing Ukraine's medium-term outlook and support needs.”
KSE Institute (Kyiv School of Economics) — Ukraine Macroeconomic Handbook, p.3 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0028✓ substring-verified
“Growth is projected at 2.2 per cent in 2026, rising to 4.0 per cent in 2027 if the war can be brought to a halt and if post-war reconstruction begins.”
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development — Regional Economic Prospects, p.44 · vintage 2026-06 · UA-Q-0029✓ substring-verified
“The outlook is particularly uncertain largely due to factors outside of Ukraine's control, where a worsened security situation could further damage infrastructure and deepen labour shortages. Conversely, faster-than-expected repairs and diversification of energy infrastructure could alleviate the drag on industrial output and private consumption.”
European Commission — European Economic Forecast, p.182 · vintage 2026-05 · UA-Q-0011✓ substring-verified
Want to know what prediction markets are saying?
Useful?Want to know how the IMF’s assumed war end-date was changing in 2022–2025?
Useful?Across ten IMF Country-Report vintages the assumed wind-down drifted out by about three years — from a 2022 de-escalation to a late-2025 end — yet all those target dates are already behind us while fighting continues.
- March 2022 (RFI): the baseline assumed the war would de-escalate over the course of that year.
- Through 2023–24 the assumed end stepped forward in stages — first half of 2024, then mid-2024, then end-2024, where it held for three successive reviews.
- From October 2024 the baseline assumed a wind-down in the last quarter of 2025, repeated through the 5th–8th reviews.
- Each plotted assumption now lies in the past (the marker line is mid-2026) while the war continues.