| CPI growth, y-o-y % (period average) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), baseline as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), downside as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| WB MPO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| EC Economic Forecast (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| NBU Inflation Report (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| KSE Macro Handbook (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||
| ICU Macro Insight (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), ceasefire as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), war as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Concorde Capital, CES survey (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CPI growth, y-o-y (end-of-period) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), baseline as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), downside as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| NBU Inflation Report (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ICU Macro Insight (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), ceasefire as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), war as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Concorde Capital, CES survey (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nominal wages, y-o-y % (period average) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), baseline as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), downside as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| NBU Inflation Report (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
| KSE Macro Handbook (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NBU policy rate, % (period average) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBU Inflation Report (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
| KSE Macro Handbook (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||
| ICU Macro Insight (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| UAHUSD exchange rate (period average) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||
| KSE Macro Handbook (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||
| ICU Macro Insight (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), ceasefire as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), war as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Concorde Capital, CES survey (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“Inflation is expected to remain elevated throughout the forecast period but mostly below the 10% threshold, driven initially by cost-push pressures-higher global energy prices, war-related supply disruptions, and likely administered tariff increases-before gradually shifting toward demand-driven inflation during the post-war recovery period.”
KSE Institute (Kyiv School of Economics) — Ukraine Macroeconomic Handbook, p.4 · vintage 2026-08 · UA-Q-0036✓ substring-verified
“According to the NBU's forecast, inflation will begin to decline in 2027 (to 6.9%) and will reach the 5% target at the end of 2028.”
National Bank of Ukraine — Inflation Report, p.3 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0026✓ substring-verified
“While inflation expectations remain broadly stable, the disinflationary trend has stalled, with a fuel price-driven increase in April leading the NBU to pause its easing cycle and signal a tightening bias.”
International Monetary Fund — Ukraine: Country Report (EFF programme reviews), p.13 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0035✓ substring-verified
“Driven by higher oil and gas prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East, growing production costs and war-related disruptions, inflationary pressures are expected to remain elevated, with the inflation rate to reach 9.3% in 2026.”
European Commission — European Economic Forecast, p.182 · vintage 2026-05 · UA-Q-0037✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECbest · Adj. MAE | 9 | -1.48 | 1.97 | 3.73 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| NBU | 24 | -2.18 | 4.89 | 3.95 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| IMF | 21 | -2.63 | 4.54 | 4.03 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| ICU | 15 | -1.16 | 4.00 | 4.24 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| KSE | 4 | -1.30 | 1.48 | 4.89 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBUbest · Adj. MAE | 24 | -2.51 | 5.14 | 4.73 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| IMF | 21 | -2.02 | 5.04 | 5.43 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| ICU | 15 | -1.20 | 5.79 | 5.91 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Institution | N | Avg. error (UAH/USD) | MAE (UAH/USD) | Adj. MAE (UAH/USD) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICUbest · Adj. MAE | 15 | -0.19 | 1.25 | 1.56 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| KSE | 4 | +0.92 | 0.95 | 1.93 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| IMF | 20 | -2.91 | 5.11 | 4.68 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICUbest · Adj. MAE | 4 | +3.71 | 3.90 | 3.19 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| KSE | 4 | -1.91 | 4.16 | 6.31 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| NBU | 21 | -2.68 | 6.92 | 6.67 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| IMF | 18 | -3.85 | 7.53 | 7.50 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).