| Federal funds rate, % (end of period) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FED SEP (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||
| MKT Market data (August 2026), Dec 2026 futures (implied) * as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| MKT Market data (August 2026), Dec 2027 futures (implied) * as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Federal funds rate, % (annual average) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBO Budget & Economic Outlook (February 2026) as of 2026-02 |
| 10-year Treasury note yield, % | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBO Budget & Economic Outlook (February 2026) as of 2026-02 |
| 3-month Treasury bill rate, % (annual average) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBO Budget & Economic Outlook (February 2026) as of 2026-02 | |||||||||||||
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“Each participant's projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy-including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value-and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — Summary of Economic Projections, p.1 · vintage 2026-06 · US-Q-0096✓ substring-verified
“"Appropriate monetary policy" is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — Summary of Economic Projections, p.1 · vintage 2026-06 · US-Q-0097✓ substring-verified
“Balanced risks to the Fed's maximum employment mandate and upside risks to the price stability mandate mean there is little scope to lower the policy rate over the coming year.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.6 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0091✓ substring-verified
“A larger monetary easing would need to be predicated on a material worsening in labor market prospects and an absence of increasing inflationary pressures, including from higher near-term inflation expectations due to rising oil and commodity prices.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.6 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0092✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEDbest · Adj. MAE | 81 | -0.21 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).