| General government balance, % of GDP | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | ||||||||||
| EC AMECO (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| OECD Economic Outlook (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — |
| General government gross debt, % of GDP | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | ||||||||||
| EC AMECO (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| OECD Economic Outlook (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“Going forward, the budget reconciliation enacted on July 4, 2025, with a total fiscal cost of about $3.4 trillion over the next decade, is expected to be only partially offset by additional revenues from the administration's new tariff policy, implying wider deficits in the near term.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.58 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0117✓ substring-verified
“Achieving this needed realignment of the fiscal position will require going beyond the ongoing efforts to identify efficiencies in discretionary, non-defense federal spending (which makes up only 15 percent of total federal outlays). Rather, the bulk of this adjustment will need to be borne by increases in federal revenues and a rebalancing of entitlement programs (notably social security and Medicare).”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.32 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0114✓ substring-verified
“The increase in the fiscal deficit as a result of this combination of policies is expected to peak at around 3⁄4 percent of GDP in 2027. After that point, various tax provisions will expire and social assistance cuts become larger.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.32 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0111✓ substring-verified
“Under current policies, the general government debt is expected to exceed 140 percent of GDP by 2031. The risk of sovereign stress in the U.S. is low due to the depth and liquidity of Treasury markets and the dollar's status as a reserve currency.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.32 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0113✓ substring-verified
“According to analysis by the Council of Economic Advisors, the combination of the Working Family Tax Cuts, spending reductions, growth effects from tax cuts and deregulation, and tariff revenues, are expected to reduce the deficit by up to US$11 trillion over the next ten years.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.32 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0115✓ substring-verified
“The fiscal deficit is expected to remain large over the next five years at around 6 percent of GDP for the federal government and 7-71⁄2 percent of GDP for the general government. This should steadily increase the general government debt to exceed 140 percent of GDP by 2031.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.28 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0100✓ substring-verified
“There is, though, a strong possibility that some of the expiring tax provisions will be renewed which creates upside risks to the medium-term path for both the federal deficit and debt.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.32 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0112✓ substring-verified
“Under the baseline scenario, public debt is projected to rise as a share of GDP over the medium term as aging-related expenditures on health and social security feed into the debt dynamics.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.58 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0116✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMFbest · Adj. MAE | 40 | +1.46 | 2.52 | 2.20 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| EC | 28 | +0.73 | 2.06 | 2.25 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| OECD | 31 | +0.95 | 2.46 | 2.70 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECbest · Adj. MAE | 28 | +0.11 | 5.68 | 6.19 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| IMF | 38 | +0.09 | 7.26 | 6.36 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| OECD | 31 | +1.61 | 6.69 | 7.35 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).