| CPI inflation, y-o-y % (period average) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||
| CBO Budget & Economic Outlook (February 2026) as of 2026-02 | — | |||||||||||||
| EC AMECO (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| OECD Economic Outlook (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CPI inflation, y-o-y % (end of period) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — |
| PCE inflation, % (Q4/Q4) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FED SEP (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Core PCE inflation, % (Q4/Q4) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FED SEP (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“Inflation was projected to step down next year, as some of the factors lifting inflation this year-such as tariffs-were expected to wane, and then move down further to about 2 percent in 2028.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — FOMC meeting minutes, p.6 · vintage 2026-07 · US-Q-0076✓ substring-verified
“Both total and core inflation were higher than their levels a year earlier, a development that the staff attributed to a variety of factors, including the pass-through of past tariff increases, higher energy and input costs stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, and the surge in demand related to the AI buildout.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — FOMC meeting minutes, p.4 · vintage 2026-07 · US-Q-0075✓ substring-verified
“With inflation having run significantly above 2 percent over the past five years and in light of some emergent price pressures that appeared unrelated to tariffs or energy prices, the staff continued to view the possibility that inflation would be more persistent than projected as a salient risk.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — FOMC meeting minutes, p.7 · vintage 2026-07 · US-Q-0077✓ substring-verified
“Most participants remarked that growth in economic activity that exceeded that of potential output, owing in part to strong AI business investment, could contribute to more persistent inflationary pressures.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — FOMC meeting minutes, p.8 · vintage 2026-07 · US-Q-0078✓ substring-verified
“The inflationary impulse from tariffs is expected to wane and oil prices to come down from their currently elevated levels, allowing core PCE inflation to fall back to 2 percent during the first half of 2027.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.2 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0089✓ substring-verified
“In the event of a deeper or more prolonged conflict in the Middle East, the disruption of major transit routes and supply chains would further add to world energy, fertilizer and food prices.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.28 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0110✓ substring-verified
“In the event of a deeper or more prolonged conflict in the Middle East, the disruption of major transit routes and supply chains would further add to world energy, fertilizer and food prices. This would add to headline inflation in the U.S. with increased potential to create second round effects on wages and a broader range of service prices.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.28 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0095✓ substring-verified
“Core PCE inflation is expected to fall to 2 percent by 2027H1 as tariff effects wane, goods price inflation slows, oil prices fall from their currently elevated levels, the economy expands in line with potential output, and services inflation continues to slowly decline toward pre-pandemic levels.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.27 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0094✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECbest · Adj. MAE | 28 | -0.51 | 0.83 | 1.01 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| IMF | 40 | -0.80 | 1.13 | 1.11 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| FED | 81 | -0.82 | 1.10 | 1.12 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| CBO | 37 | -1.04 | 1.49 | 1.28 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| SPF | 84 | -1.08 | 1.39 | 1.34 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| OECD | 34 | -0.96 | 1.20 | 1.39 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEDbest · Adj. MAE | 81 | -0.73 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).