| Real GDP growth, y-o-y % (annual average) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||
| CBO Budget & Economic Outlook (February 2026) as of 2026-02 | — | |||||||||||||
| WB GEP (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| EC AMECO (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| OECD Economic Outlook (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Real GDP growth, % (Q4/Q4) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FED SEP (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Population, mln | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — |
| Unemployment rate, % (annual average) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FED SEP (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||
| CBO Budget & Economic Outlook (February 2026) as of 2026-02 | — | |||||||||||||
| EC AMECO (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| OECD Economic Outlook (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“Participants generally expected solid real GDP growth to continue throughout the remainder of the year and pointed to several factors likely to support continued expansion, including ongoing AI-related investment, household spending, and fiscal policy.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — FOMC meeting minutes, p.9 · vintage 2026-07 · US-Q-0079✓ substring-verified
“The longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — Summary of Economic Projections, p.1 · vintage 2026-06 · US-Q-0098✓ substring-verified
“Strong, broad-based productivity growth has underpinned buoyant economic activity while employment growth has slowed, in part due to sharply lower immigration flows.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.2 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0088✓ substring-verified
“Growth is expected to accelerate modestly in 2026, supported by expansionary fiscal policy, a waning drag from tariffs, and the impact of policy rate cuts in 2025.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.6 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0109✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECbest · Adj. MAE | 28 | -0.29 | 1.26 | 1.43 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| SPF | 52 | -0.06 | 1.68 | 1.44 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| IMF | 40 | -0.35 | 1.42 | 1.45 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| FED | 81 | -0.30 | 1.43 | 1.47 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| OECD | 36 | -0.38 | 1.34 | 1.51 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
| CBO | 37 | -0.17 | 1.62 | 1.52 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| WB | 40 | -0.84 | 1.97 | 1.99 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEDbest · Adj. MAE | 69 | -0.17 | 0.71 | 0.73 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| SPF | 84 | -0.30 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| OECD | 36 | -0.12 | 0.81 | 0.97 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| EC | 28 | -0.38 | 0.84 | 0.99 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| IMF | 40 | -0.20 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| CBO | 37 | -0.34 | 1.21 | 1.04 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).