| WTI crude oil price, USD/bbl | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | ||||||||||
| EIA STEO (August 2026) * as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| MKT Market data (August 2026), Dec 2026 futures * as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| MKT Market data (August 2026), Dec 2027 futures * as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| MKT Market data (August 2026), Dec 2028 futures * as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brent crude oil price, USD/bbl | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | ||||||||||
| EIA STEO (August 2026) * as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| MKT Market data (August 2026), Dec 2026 futures * as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| MKT Market data (August 2026), Dec 2027 futures * as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crude oil (average petroleum spot price), USD/bbl | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 |
| Henry Hub natural gas spot price, USD/MMBtu | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | ||||||||||
| EIA STEO (August 2026) * as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| MKT Market data (August 2026), Dec 2026 futures * as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| MKT Market data (August 2026), Dec 2027 futures * as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“Natural gas-fired electricity generation, which increased by 2% in 1H26, is forecast to increase in 2027 as natural gas prices remain relatively low, while coal generation continues to decline due to the shift toward lower-cost natural gas.”
U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook, p.4 · vintage 2026-08 · US-Q-0086✓ substring-verified
“As inventories rebuild, with most production expected to recover by early 2027, we expect the Brent spot price to gradually fall to an average of $69/b in 2027.”
U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook, p.3 · vintage 2026-08 · US-Q-0083✓ substring-verified
“We have increased our estimates of Middle East shut-in crude oil production in the coming months compared with our July forecast due to continued severe constraints on Strait of Hormuz transits, which we assume persist through August.”
U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook, p.3 · vintage 2026-08 · US-Q-0080✓ substring-verified
“Because of the large drawdown in global inventories triggered by continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, we forecast that oil prices will remain elevated until global oil flows return to normal and oil inventories are replenished.”
U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook, p.7 · vintage 2026-08 · US-Q-0087✓ substring-verified
“The price decline is driven by reduced LNG feedgas demand and robust natural gas production.”
U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook, p.4 · vintage 2026-08 · US-Q-0084✓ substring-verified
“Based on our updated assumption, reduced oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz lower global oil inventories further in the coming months and keep crude oil prices near levels from the first week of August.”
U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook, p.3 · vintage 2026-08 · US-Q-0082✓ substring-verified
“We expect most crude oil production in the region to return to near pre-conflict averages in early 2027; however, we expect ongoing disruptions of about 0.6 million barrels per day to continue through the end of next year.”
U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook, p.3 · vintage 2026-08 · US-Q-0081✓ substring-verified
“Our forecast assumes prices will remain below $3.00/MMBtu in the coming months, driven by near record-high storage levels heading into October.”
U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook, p.4 · vintage 2026-08 · US-Q-0085✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (USD/bbl) | MAE (USD/bbl) | Adj. MAE (USD/bbl) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMFbest · Adj. MAE | 31 | -1.60 | 9.43 | 9.05 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| EIA | 30 | -2.38 | 11.17 | 11.56 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Institution | N | Avg. error (USD/bbl) | MAE (USD/bbl) | Adj. MAE (USD/bbl) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMFbest · Adj. MAE | 31 | -0.53 | 9.96 | 9.58 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| EIA | 30 | -2.11 | 11.52 | 11.90 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Institution | N | Avg. error (USD/MMBtu) | MAE (USD/MMBtu) | Adj. MAE (USD/MMBtu) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMFbest · Adj. MAE | 31 | -0.07 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| EIA | 30 | -0.04 | 0.93 | 0.96 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).