| Unemployment rate, % (annual average) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FED SEP (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||
| CBO Budget & Economic Outlook (February 2026) as of 2026-02 | — | |||||||||||||
| EC AMECO (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| OECD Economic Outlook (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Unemployment rate, % (Q4 level) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FED SEP (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Population, mln | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“Employment is expected to grow at less than one-half of the pace seen in the five years prior to the pandemic. However, given the ongoing slowing of working-age population growth, the unemployment rate should remain close to 4 percent in 2026-27.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.2 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0090✓ substring-verified
“The reduction in immigration will reduce labor supply which should allow the labor market to remain at, or close to, full employment in 2026-27 (i.e. an unemployment rate close to 4 percent).”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.27 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0093✓ substring-verified
“Employment is expected to grow at less than one-half of the pace seen in the five years prior to the pandemic as the very high labor productivity gains of the past three years slowly dissipate. The reduction in immigration will reduce labor supply which should allow the labor market to remain at, or close to, full employment in 2026-27 (i.e. an unemployment rate close to 4 percent).”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.27 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0099✓ substring-verified
“The absence of significant wage pressures suggests that the slowing supply of labor is coinciding with falling demand for labor, in part as businesses adopt new labor-saving technologies (see below).”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.12 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0123✓ substring-verified
“Restrictions on immigration are already reducing the share of foreign-born workers which should raise wages, particularly in those occupations that are disproportionately reliant on immigrant workers.”
International Monetary Fund — United States: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.46 · vintage 2026-04 · US-Q-0124✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEDbest · Adj. MAE | 69 | -0.17 | 0.71 | 0.73 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| SPF | 84 | -0.30 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| OECD | 36 | -0.12 | 0.81 | 0.97 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| EC | 28 | -0.38 | 0.84 | 0.99 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| IMF | 40 | -0.20 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| CBO | 37 | -0.34 | 1.21 | 1.04 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).