| Unemployment rate, % (annual average) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FED SEP (September 2026) as of 2026-09 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||
| CBO Budget & Economic Outlook (February 2026) as of 2026-02 | — | |||||||||||||
| EC AMECO (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| OECD Economic Outlook (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Unemployment rate, % (Q4 level) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FED SEP (September 2026) as of 2026-09 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Population, mln | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — FOMC statement, p.1 · vintage 2026-09 · US-Q-0252✓ substring-verified
“Many participants remarked that the labor market was not currently a source of inflationary pressures, or that nominal wage growth remained consistent with inflation moving toward 2 percent.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — FOMC meeting minutes, p.8 · vintage 2026-07 · US-Q-0248✓ substring-verified
“Several participants noted, however, that declines in the job-finding rate and certain survey measures of job availability reflected a labor market with relatively low dynamism.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — FOMC meeting minutes, p.8 · vintage 2026-07 · US-Q-0247✓ substring-verified
“Several participants observed that other labor market indicators, such as job openings, initial unemployment insurance claims, and layoffs had remained stable in recent months and that such data pointed to a balanced labor market.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — FOMC meeting minutes, p.8 · vintage 2026-07 · US-Q-0246✓ substring-verified
“The unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in May and had changed little, on balance, since the middle of the previous year.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — FOMC meeting minutes, p.4 · vintage 2026-07 · US-Q-0243✓ substring-verified
“Some participants commented on the possibility that AI could, over time, affect employment prospects for some classes of workers.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — FOMC meeting minutes, p.9 · vintage 2026-07 · US-Q-0250✓ substring-verified
“Several participants cited, however, the possibility that uncertainty related to geopolitical developments or the broader economic outlook could lead firms to reduce hiring or begin implementing layoffs.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — FOMC meeting minutes, p.9 · vintage 2026-07 · US-Q-0249✓ substring-verified
“Average hourly earnings increased 3.4 percent over the 12 months ending in May, 0.5 percentage point lower than a year earlier.”
Federal Reserve (FOMC) — FOMC meeting minutes, p.4 · vintage 2026-07 · US-Q-0245✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FEDbest · Adj. MAE | 81 | -0.16 | 0.63 | 0.64 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| SPF | 84 | -0.30 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| OECD | 36 | -0.12 | 0.81 | 0.96 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| EC | 28 | -0.38 | 0.84 | 0.98 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| IMF | 40 | -0.20 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| CBO | 37 | -0.34 | 1.21 | 1.05 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).