| UAHUSD exchange rate (period average) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — | ||||||||||
| KSE Macro Handbook (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||
| ICU Macro Insight (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), ceasefire as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), war as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Concorde Capital, CES survey (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross reserves, USD bn | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), baseline as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), downside as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| NBU Inflation Report (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||
| KSE Macro Handbook (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||
| ICU Macro Insight (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), ceasefire as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), war as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), baseline as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), downside as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| WB MPO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| EC Economic Forecast (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| KSE Macro Handbook (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||||||
| ICU Macro Insight (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |||||
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), ceasefire as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Dragon Capital, CES survey (August 2026), war as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Exports volume growth, y-o-y | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), baseline as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), downside as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| EC Economic Forecast (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Imports volume growth, y-o-y | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F | 2032'F | 2033'F | 2034'F | 2035'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), baseline as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| IMF Country Report (July 2026), downside as of 2026-07 | ||||||||||||||
| EC Economic Forecast (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“The current account deficit will be USD 68.8 billion larger than in the Q2 forecast over 2026-29, owing to higher defense-related imports, lower exports, and delayed inflows of private capital.”
KSE Institute (Kyiv School of Economics) — Ukraine Macroeconomic Handbook, p.4 · vintage 2026-08 · UA-Q-0044✓ substring-verified
“More supportive fiscal policies and the higher energy import bill will widen the current account deficit excluding grants to US$52.2 billion while international reserves are projected at US$65.5 billion (129 percent of the ARA metric).”
International Monetary Fund — Ukraine: Country Report (EFF programme reviews), p.19 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0042✓ substring-verified
“Second, the inflow of part of the foreign exchange into international reserves will increase them to nearly USD 70 billion by the end of the year. This forecast takes into account increased demand for imported components for weapons production and, accordingly, a widening of structural demand for foreign exchange, which will require stepped-up interventions by the NBU to meet the needs of the economy while simultaneously preserving the sustainability of the FX market. That is, the intermediary role of the NBU in the FX market will grow.”
National Bank of Ukraine — Inflation Report, p.4 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0058✓ substring-verified
“Persistently wide fiscal deficits, alongside war-related losses in exports resulted in widening current account deficits, which reached 16 percent of GDP in 2025.”
International Monetary Fund — Ukraine: Country Report (EFF programme reviews), p.13 · vintage 2026-07 · UA-Q-0059✓ substring-verified
“We continue to view the growing foreign trade and C/A deficits as a huge macro risk in the medium term. Excluding grants, the C/A gap is going to reach nearly a quarter of GDP in 2026 with trade shortfall hitting a third of GDP.”
ICU (Investment Capital Ukraine) — Macro Insight (quarterly macro review), p.4 · vintage 2026-06 · UA-Q-0232✓ substring-verified
“The current account balance is projected to remain negative throughout the forecast horizon due to a persistent large trade deficit.”
European Commission — European Economic Forecast, p.182 · vintage 2026-05 · UA-Q-0045✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (UAH/USD) | MAE (UAH/USD) | Adj. MAE (UAH/USD) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICUbest · Adj. MAE | 15 | -0.19 | 1.25 | 1.56 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| KSE | 4 | +0.92 | 0.95 | 1.93 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| IMF | 20 | -2.91 | 5.11 | 4.68 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp of GDP) | MAE (pp of GDP) | Adj. MAE (pp of GDP) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMFbest · Adj. MAE | 21 | +1.67 | 3.60 | 3.26 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| EC | 11 | +2.95 | 3.80 | 4.02 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| KSE | 4 | +3.14 | 3.46 | 4.17 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| ICU | 15 | +2.52 | 4.34 | 4.45 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Institution | N | Avg. error (USD bn) | MAE (USD bn) | Adj. MAE (USD bn) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICUbest · Adj. MAE | 15 | -3.35 | 4.76 | 5.87 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| NBU | 24 | -6.76 | 7.26 | 7.12 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| IMF | 17 | -9.22 | 9.24 | 8.65 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| KSE | 4 | -10.35 | 11.55 | 10.69 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).
| uah_usd | imports_growth | exports_growth | current_account_gdp | gross_reserves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uah_usd | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.87 | -0.97 | 0.94 |
| imports_growth | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.58 | -0.97 | 0.99 |
| exports_growth | 0.87 | 0.58 | 1.00 | -0.76 | 0.67 |
| current_account_gdp | -0.97 | -0.97 | -0.76 | 1.00 | -0.99 |
| gross_reserves | 0.94 | 0.99 | 0.67 | -0.99 | 1.00 |
Methodology: pairwise Pearson correlation coefficients computed by code from realised annual outturns in the data registry (calendar years 2022–2025). For each indicator and year the latest-vintage authoritative outturn is used (IMF preferred when several sources report the same year); each pair is computed over the years available for both indicators, with a minimum of 4 overlapping years. Forecasts and scenario projections are excluded.