| Unemployment rate, % (ILO modelled estimate) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILO projections (November 2025) as of 2025-11 |
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“Despite recent improvements, challenges persist, with high informality and underemployment, and declining but still high youth unemployment for the most educated (Figure 3).”
International Monetary Fund — India: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.9 · vintage 2025-11 · IN-Q-0220✓ substring-verified
“Labor market exposure to AI underscores the need to invest in skills upgrading while protecting vulnerable households caught in the transition. In India, AI exposure is concentrated in services and manufacturing, while agriculture-which remains a major source of employment-has low exposure.”
International Monetary Fund — India: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.85 · vintage 2025-11 · IN-Q-0170✓ substring-verified
“Real hourly wages have grown by 16 and 26 percent since 2018 in rural and urban areas, respectively, in part reflecting fewer hours worked.”
International Monetary Fund — India: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.9 · vintage 2025-11 · IN-Q-0167✓ substring-verified
“This puts India at a compounded disadvantage by not only having more small firms employing a larger share of workers, but also by having a much larger productivity drag in these small firms.”
International Monetary Fund — India: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.76 · vintage 2025-11 · IN-Q-0169✓ substring-verified
“Within the workforce, AI exposure with high complementarity increases sharply with education level, suggesting that individuals with tertiary education are more likely to benefit from AI-enabled productivity gains.”
International Monetary Fund — India: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.85 · vintage 2025-11 · IN-Q-0171✓ substring-verified
“Labor market indicators remained broadly stable in 2024, with a mild improvement in job quality, though challenges remain. Amid an unchanged labor force participation rate of 56.2 percent, regular and formal employment expanded.”
International Monetary Fund — India: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.9 · vintage 2025-11 · IN-Q-0166✓ substring-verified
“Small companies tend to be less productive than large ones, and the relative difference in productivity between large and small firms is much larger in India than in the U.S.: the smallest firms in India are less than 20 percent as productive as large companies, while in the U.S., this ratio is about 45 percent.”
International Monetary Fund — India: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.76 · vintage 2025-11 · IN-Q-0168✓ substring-verified
“Labor market indicators remained broadly stable in 2024, with a mild improvement in job quality, though challenges remain. Amid an unchanged labor force participation rate of 56.2 percent, regular and formal employment expanded. The employment rate of regular wage earners grew from 12.3 percent in 2023 to 12.7 percent in 2024, while formal employment (defined by social security coverage) increased from 11 percent to 11.2 percent.”
International Monetary Fund — India: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.9 · vintage 2025-11 · IN-Q-0219✓ substring-verified