| CPI inflation, y-o-y % (period average) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | ||||||||||
| EC Economic Forecast (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| OECD Economic Outlook (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ADB ADO (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| RBI MPR (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CPI inflation, y-o-y % (end of period) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 |
| Core CPI inflation (excl. food & fuel), y-o-y % | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“Measures to mitigate the impact of the conflict are expected to result in a temporary fiscal worsening, while elevated inflation and pressure on the rupee could bring monetary easing to an end.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.199 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0184✓ substring-verified
“However, the conflict in the Middle East poses further upside risks to inflation including from energy-related supply bottlenecks, notably relating to fertilisers and food production.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.200 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0185✓ substring-verified
“Domestically, climate-related risks, such as the predicted weak monsoon in 2026, could weigh on rural incomes and drive food inflation, especially if exacerbated by interactions with high fertiliser prices or related shortages.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.200 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0131✓ substring-verified
“While the pass-through of the energy price shock from the conflict in the Middle East conflict has been limited as administered fuel prices shielded consumers, it is expected to drive the headline rate to an average of 4.6% this FY, before moderating to 4.1% in FY 2027-28, thus well within the Reserve Bank of India's inflation target range of 4% ±2pps.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.200 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0129✓ substring-verified
“As per the latest OECD Economic Outlook, heightened uncertainty around the ongoing West Asia conflict has firmed up energy prices, which is expected to increase headline inflation in 2026 and raise medium-term inflation expectations.”
Reserve Bank of India — Monetary Policy Report, p.19 · vintage 2026-04 · IN-Q-0172✓ substring-verified
“Sharp correction in food prices during Q3:2025-26, much larger than the usual trend, contributed to most of this deviation.”
Reserve Bank of India — Monetary Policy Report, p.82 · vintage 2026-04 · IN-Q-0173✓ substring-verified
“Against this broadly resilient backdrop, spillovers from the ongoing West Asia conflict are likely to impact the Indian economy through several channels. Elevated and volatile energy prices, through higher import bill, may impact the current account deficit and exert imported inflation pressure, including potential second-round effects.”
Reserve Bank of India — Monetary Policy Report, p.101 · vintage 2026-04 · IN-Q-0139✓ substring-verified
“OMCs have also raised prices of diesel for bulk buyers (industrial use) by about 25 per cent on March 20, 2026. Commercial LPG prices were increased in two tranches - first by ₹115 per cylinder and later by ₹195.5 per cylinder. Going forward, these could exert higher input cost pressures.”
Reserve Bank of India — Monetary Policy Report, p.95 · vintage 2026-04 · IN-Q-0176✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBIbest · Adj. MAE | 8 | +0.14 | 0.49 | 0.73 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| ADB | 5 | +0.81 | 1.03 | 0.99 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| IMF | 40 | -0.48 | 1.17 | 1.03 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| OECD | 36 | -0.22 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| SPF | 23 | -0.39 | 1.24 | 1.40 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).