| CPI inflation, y-o-y % (period average) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | ||||||||||
| EC Economic Forecast (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| OECD Economic Outlook (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ADB ADO (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| RBI MPR (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CPI inflation, y-o-y % (end of period) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 |
| Core CPI inflation (excl. food & fuel), y-o-y % | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“Measures to mitigate the impact of the conflict are expected to result in a temporary fiscal worsening, while elevated inflation and pressure on the rupee could bring monetary easing to an end.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.199 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0184✓ substring-verified
“Domestically, climate-related risks, such as the predicted weak monsoon in 2026, could weigh on rural incomes and drive food inflation, especially if exacerbated by interactions with high fertiliser prices or related shortages.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.200 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0131✓ substring-verified
“However, the conflict in the Middle East poses further upside risks to inflation including from energy-related supply bottlenecks, notably relating to fertilisers and food production.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.200 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0185✓ substring-verified
“While the pass-through of the energy price shock from the conflict in the Middle East conflict has been limited as administered fuel prices shielded consumers, it is expected to drive the headline rate to an average of 4.6% this FY, before moderating to 4.1% in FY 2027-28, thus well within the Reserve Bank of India's inflation target range of 4% ±2pps.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.200 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0129✓ substring-verified
“In the euro area, headline inflation, which had remained close to the 2.0 per cent target in Q4:2025, dipped to 1.7 per cent in January 2026, but rose thereafter to 2.5 per cent in March, largely on account of higher energy inflation.”
Reserve Bank of India — Monetary Policy Report, p.19 · vintage 2026-04 · IN-Q-0192✓ substring-verified
“As per the latest OECD Economic Outlook, heightened uncertainty around the ongoing West Asia conflict has firmed up energy prices, which is expected to increase headline inflation in 2026 and raise medium-term inflation expectations.”
Reserve Bank of India — Monetary Policy Report, p.19 · vintage 2026-04 · IN-Q-0172✓ substring-verified
“In Q4 so far, the deviation is also on account of lower core inflation in the new CPI series.”
Reserve Bank of India — Monetary Policy Report, p.82 · vintage 2026-04 · IN-Q-0174✓ substring-verified
“The ongoing conflict in West Asia and resulting disruptions to supply chains have imparted heightened volatility to crude oil prices and has led to shortages of key feedstocks for fertiliser production, with spillovers to associated industrial output.”
Reserve Bank of India — Monetary Policy Report, p.95 · vintage 2026-04 · IN-Q-0175✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBIbest · Adj. MAE | 8 | +0.14 | 0.49 | 0.73 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| ADB | 5 | +0.81 | 1.03 | 0.99 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| IMF | 40 | -0.48 | 1.17 | 1.03 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| OECD | 36 | -0.22 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| SPF | 23 | -0.39 | 1.24 | 1.40 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).