| Real GDP growth, y-o-y % (fiscal year) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | ||||||||||
| WB GEP (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| EC Economic Forecast (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| OECD Economic Outlook (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| ADB ADO (July 2026) as of 2026-07 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| RBI MPR (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Population, mln | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“Ultimately, the extent to which AI reshapes global growth will depend on the scale and persistence of the productivity improvements it generates and on whether countries can build the conditions needed to capture them.”
World Bank — Global Economic Prospects, p.30 · vintage 2026-06 · IN-Q-0125✓ substring-verified
“Investment is set to continue supporting growth, driven by continued public capital expenditure in transport, energy and digital infrastructure. Amid heightened uncertainty and reduced prospects for further monetary easing, private investment is expected to ease but remain robust given improved trade prospects on the back of recent free trade agreements and healthy corporate balance sheets.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.199 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0132✓ substring-verified
“Given India's significant exposure to the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East as a major energy importer, growth is set to slow to 6.1% this fiscal year as rising inflation dampens private consumption, which remains the main growth driver.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.199 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0126✓ substring-verified
“Overall, what begins as a supply shock through energy and logistics disruptions has the potential to transform into a demand slowdown over the medium term if the conflict gets prolonged and restoration of supply chains is delayed.”
Reserve Bank of India — Monetary Policy Report, p.101 · vintage 2026-04 · IN-Q-0138✓ substring-verified
“GDP growth is projected to decline to 6.9% in FY2026 primarily due to external challenges, and expand to 7.3% in FY2027 as consumption and investment benefit from favorable policies and the external environment improves.”
Asian Development Bank — Asian Development Outlook, p.1 · vintage 2026-03 · IN-Q-0133✓ substring-verified
“Growth is expected to decline to 6.2 percent in FY2026/27, as high U.S. tariffs (assumed to persist under the baseline) dent external demand and investment.”
International Monetary Fund — India: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.12 · vintage 2025-11 · IN-Q-0200✓ substring-verified
“Growth is expected to decline to 6.2 percent in FY2026/27, as high U.S. tariffs (assumed to persist under the baseline) dent external demand and investment. Growth below potential would open a small output gap next year, before returning to its potential rate of 6.5 percent over the medium term.”
International Monetary Fund — India: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.12 · vintage 2025-11 · IN-Q-0152✓ substring-verified
“Under staff's baseline scenario, real GDP growth is projected at 6.6 percent in FY2025/26, helped by the strong 2025Q2 growth outturn, the GST reform, and a 2025Q3 nowcast pointing to continued momentum (Annex III), offsetting the adverse impact of U.S. tariffs (text table).”
International Monetary Fund — India: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.12 · vintage 2025-11 · IN-Q-0151✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBbest · Adj. MAE | 5 | -0.53 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| IMF | 40 | +1.34 | 2.69 | 2.39 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| OECD | 36 | +0.74 | 2.37 | 2.48 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| WB | 24 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 2.93 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| SPF | 35 | +2.17 | 2.98 | 3.49 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).