| General government balance, % of GDP | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | ||||||||||
| EC Economic Forecast (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| General government gross debt, % of GDP | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | ||||||||||
| EC Economic Forecast (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Central government fiscal deficit, % of GDP | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“Against this background, public debt is projected to come down only marginally by around 1 pp. over the forecast horizon, from 84.3% in FY 2025-26.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.200 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0189✓ substring-verified
“Overall, the general government deficit is projected to temporarily widen slightly to 7.6% of GDP in FY2026-27 before edging down to 7.4% of GDP again in FY2027-28.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.200 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0188✓ substring-verified
“Spending on fertiliser subsidies-which accounted for 0.5% of GDP in FY 2025-26-is set to increase, while lower economic growth could imply revenue shortfalls.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.200 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0187✓ substring-verified
“In response to the conflict in the Middle East, the government has established an Economic Stabilisation Fund of around 0.3% of GDP and lowered excise duties on fuels.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.200 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0186✓ substring-verified
“In response to the conflict in the Middle East, the government has established an Economic Stabilisation Fund of around 0.3% of GDP and lowered excise duties on fuels. Spending on fertiliser subsidies-which accounted for 0.5% of GDP in FY 2025-26-is set to increase, while lower economic growth could imply revenue shortfalls.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.200 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0128✓ substring-verified
“Under shock scenarios, reflecting conditions such as lower growth or slower fiscal adjustment, debt paths are skewed towards elevated debt levels, highlighting the importance of swiftly rebuilding buffers.”
International Monetary Fund — India: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.16 · vintage 2025-11 · IN-Q-0163✓ substring-verified
“Downwardly revised nominal GDP (reflecting a low deflator) together with the PIT and GST reductions, may test this year's tax revenue intake, but the central government's deficit target of 4.4 percent of GDP (4.5 percent of GDP, IMF definition) remains within reach.”
International Monetary Fund — India: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.14 · vintage 2025-11 · IN-Q-0159✓ substring-verified
“While the PIT reduction could help support private consumption, it will further narrow the already-limited tax base, particularly given the high effective tax-free threshold relative to peer countries.”
International Monetary Fund — India: Article IV Consultation — Staff Report, p.14 · vintage 2025-11 · IN-Q-0160✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMFbest · Adj. MAE | 40 | +0.82 | 1.44 | 1.15 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| SPF | 35 | +1.46 | 1.54 | 1.86 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMFbest · Adj. MAE | 38 | -4.35 | 5.92 | 5.92 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).