| USD/INR rate (rupees per USD) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | ||||||||||
| RBI MPR (April 2026), baseline assumption as of 2026-04 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Current account balance, % of GDP | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | ||||||||||
| EC Economic Forecast (May 2026) as of 2026-05 | — | — | — | — | — | — | ||||
| OECD Economic Outlook (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — | ||||||
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Exports volume growth, y-o-y | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | ||||||||||
| OECD Economic Outlook (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — |
| Imports volume growth, y-o-y | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF WEO (April 2026) as of 2026-04 | ||||||||||
| OECD Economic Outlook (June 2026) as of 2026-06 | — | — | — | — |
| Merchandise exports growth (US$ terms), y-o-y % | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Merchandise imports growth (US$ terms), y-o-y % | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026'E | 2027'F | 2028'F | 2029'F | 2030'F | 2031'F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPF median (August 2026) as of 2026-08 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Every cell is queried by row ID from the data registry. Click a value to see its provenance (publisher, document, vintage, primary source).
“The current account deficit is then expected to narrow to 1.5% of GDP in FY 2027-28, supported by an improvement in the external environment.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.199 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0195✓ substring-verified
“Given that India imports around 90% of its crude oil and more than half of its LNG and LPG requirements, it is particularly exposed to the conflict in the Middle East. As a result, the current account deficit is set to nearly double temporarily, to 1.9% of GDP in FY 2026-27, despite resilient IT and business services exports and broader benefits for exports due to the reduction in US tariffs and the weaker rupee.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.199 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0127✓ substring-verified
“On the external side, crucially, deeper or longer-than expected disruptions relating to the conflict in the Middle East would pose upside risks to inflation while weighing on growth, public finances and current account developments, as would further worsening investor sentiment.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.200 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0196✓ substring-verified
“The current account is set to deteriorate amid high energy prices, despite resilient services exports and support from lower US tariffs.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.199 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0235✓ substring-verified
“As a result, the current account deficit is set to nearly double temporarily, to 1.9% of GDP in FY 2026-27, despite resilient IT and business services exports and broader benefits for exports due to the reduction in US tariffs and the weaker rupee.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.199 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0193✓ substring-verified
“Downside risks are substantial, particularly owing to India's trade and remittance links with Gulf countries.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.199 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0194✓ substring-verified
“Given that India imports around 90% of its crude oil and more than half of its LNG and LPG requirements, it is particularly exposed to the conflict in the Middle East.”
European Commission (DG ECFIN) — European Economic Forecast, p.199 · vintage 2026-05 · IN-Q-0183✓ substring-verified
“Escalation of geopolitical tensions triggering broader risk aversion in EME asset markets, or a more aggressive tightening by major central banks than currently anticipated, could exert renewed depreciation pressure.”
Reserve Bank of India — Monetary Policy Report, p.114 · vintage 2026-04 · IN-Q-0181✓ substring-verified
Comparison of institutional forecast accuracy by Average error, Mean absolute error (MAE) and Adjusted MAE. Institutions are ranked by Adjusted MAE — the lowest value indicates the strongest predictive power and is highlighted.
| Institution | N | Avg. error (pp) | MAE (pp) | Adj. MAE (pp) | Rank Avg | Rank MAE | Rank Adj. MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMFbest · Adj. MAE | 40 | -1.08 | 1.19 | 1.06 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| SPF | 23 | -0.85 | 0.97 | 1.16 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| OECD | 36 | -0.71 | 1.15 | 1.18 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Forecasts made long before the actual data are released are inherently harder than those made shortly before release. The Adjusted MAE therefore takes into account the period of time between the making of each forecast and the release of the actual data, putting institutions that forecast at different horizons on an equal footing. The approach follows Michael K. Andersson, Ted Aranki and André Reslow: “Adjusting for Information Content when Comparing Forecast Performance” (2016) and “Evaluation of the Riksbank’s forecast” (2018).